Currently — August 17, 2023: Hurricane remnants could bring years worth of rain to the California desert this weekend

The weather, currently.

Hurricane Hilary is expected to make a rare trek northward across the US-Mexico border this weekend, bringing the potential for catastrophic flooding.

The latest GFS model (below) shows the remnants of a much-weakened Hurricane Hilary could bring up to 10 inches of rain to the deserts of southern California by Tuesday.

That’s a lot of rain for an area that gets almost none.

In the Coachella-Imperial Valley, the area near Palm Springs and the Salton Sea, average yearly rainfall is about 3-5 inches. That means Hilary is expected to produce about 2-3 years of rainfall in about 3 days.

The last time something like this happened, it wasn’t pretty. In 1976, the remnants of Hurricane Kathleen produced nearly 15 inches of rain on the southward-facing slopes of the Coachella Valley, creating a wall of water as high as 40 feet through normally dry streambeds, washing away homes, roads, and irrigated fields along the way.

As you might guess, hurricanes are quite rare in Southern California, but happen most frequently during El Niño years — like 2023. Climate change caused by fossil fuel burning is also a culprit here: a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, thus making torrential rainstorms more likely.

—Eric Holthaus

What you can do, currently.

The fires in Maui have struck at the heart of Hawaiian heritage, and if you’d like to support survivors, here are good places to start:

The fires burned through the capital town of the Kingdom of Hawaii, the ancestral and present home to native Hawaiians on their original unceded lands. One of the buildings destroyed was the Na ‘Aikane o Maui cultural center, a gathering place for the Hawaiian community to organize and celebrate.

If you’d like to help the community rebuild and restore the cultural center, a fund has been established that is accepting donations — specify “donation for Na ‘Aikane” on this Venmo link.