Currently — November 3, 2023: "Global warming in the pipeline" is higher than previously thought

The weather, currently.

Dr. James Hansen is synonymous with climate science. His testimony to the US Congress in 1988 first brought mainstream attention to the issue, and his predictions and advocacy throughout the years have catalyzed meaningful action.

His newest paper, published Thursday, is an engaging and readable chronicle of what’s happened to make 2023 the odds-on favorite for the hottest year in recorded human history — and why this year may just be the start of a worrying acceleration in the rate of warming over the coming decades.

The paper is controversial, if only because it is so direct in its conclusions. It also directly argues for a global carbon tax, something climate scientists aren’t typically willing to say. Other scientists have responded to the paper by reiterating the scientific consensus.

The paper estimates that the warming trends of the past few decades, when referenced back to the massive atmospheric changes during the ice ages, strongly suggest that the world will warm by about 4.8ºC were atmospheric carbon dioxide to double from pre-industrial levels — a much higher estimate than the gold-standard IPCC’s 3ºC. As a side note: It's honestly shocking to me that we don't know this number better than this by now. It's literally the fate of the world within those error bars. And if we should be expecting more warming than we already are, we need to massively ramp up our attention to this issue.

Dr. Hansen and his co-authors held a press conference after the paper’s publication on Thursday, if you’d like to listen to them explain the implications of the paper in more detail. It runs about an hour and it’s worth listening to.

— Eric Holthaus

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